Discoverying Assumption - Analogy

The principles of Heuristics in the application of problem solving is entertainingly illurstrated in Paul Niquette's 'Discoverying Assumptions'

On reading this article I saw a good analogy to the challenging job of a reservoir engineer. You'll have to read Paul's article to appreciate the point I am making.

From the article: The lecturer asks what is the number written on a piece of paper 


My manager asks me what the ultimate recovery from an oil  reservoir will be (Mother Nature knows the number I have to ask her!)

 From the article: It is assumed the lecturer will be honest


'"If Mother Nature can She will tell you a direct lie" Charles Darwin (Oh how true!)

 From the article: The joke is in the assumptions


Is it my imagination or can I hear Mother Nature laughing at the assumptions I make in my engineering calculations!

Heuristics

From Greek heuriskein, to discover, find. Related to "eureka," which is used to express triumph upon finding or discovering something. From Greek heurika, "I have found (it)" (ostensibly exclaimed by Archimedes when, while bathing, he discovered the means of measurement of volume of an irregular solid by the displacement of water, and thus was able to determine the purity of a gold crown belonging to the tyrant of Syracuse).

A reservoir may rightly feel like making such an exclamation when they establish the key reservoir characteristic influencing a history-match.